Commenting on Putin’s decision on partial mobilization in Russia, experts at the civil defense and security think tank Locked N’ Loaded believe that forcibly throwing men to the front amid defeats in Ukraine will not change the situation. They argue that since there are few modern weapons, it will not be difficult for reservists to restore their skills with old Soviet weapons, according to the Lithuanian edition www.delfi.lt.
According to experts, the involvement of the population in the reserve of the armed forces will be aimed at replacing the catastrophic losses of personnel of regular units. There are, they say, three components for this. Partial mobilization will make it possible to resolve the issue of staffing positions for maneuver units. However, in terms of quality, this step is unlikely to change anything. According to military experts, the fighting showed the importance of well-trained and motivated infantry. Throwing men into the front ranks involuntarily against the background of defeats (even after studying) will not change the situation, they say.
“On the other hand, since Russia has very limited stocks of modern equipment, it will not be difficult for the reservists who will replenish the units to improve their skills on the old Soviet weapons, equipment and technology. This will speed up the integration of mobilized personnel into the maneuver units.
Second, experts. According to experts, in theory, the Russians should recruit valuable specialists (artillerymen, pilots, signalmen, etc.) to their armed forces. However, this resource may or may not be exhausted.
“Since the beginning of the escalation, we have seen how Russia has significantly stepped up the recruitment of valuable specialists back into the armed forces (contract servicemen) or into the ranks of mercenaries (even Wagner pilots have appeared, not to mention other specialties). This did not give the desired effect. The question is how many of them are left, with what specialties and what is their motivation,” they say.
Third, leaders. This, according to experts, is the most painful topic for the Russian armed forces. They have already lost the best parts of their regular troops near Kyiv, Mariupol, Severodonetsk, Kherson and Izyum. The biggest problem is the commanders of the lower (division - company) and middle (battalion - regiment - brigade) level. That is, those who are fighting “on the ground.” Capable and willing former officers have long been fighting (or fought) in the ranks of mercenaries. It is also a resource that the aggressor is unlikely to develop.
In all likelihood, Russian agreements on the sale of weapons, equipment and military equipment to foreign states will be broken and this equipment will be put into service with their armed forces. However, this may affect the front only six months later, when new equipment and weapons appear in sufficient quantities. In addition, according to experts, the impact of sanctions will become more and more felt in the autumn-winter period, so this may also slow down production.”
Therefore, it is very likely that in order to achieve results as soon as possible, depots of mothballed military equipment and weapons will be opened, and we will see even more old Soviet equipment and weapons on the front line.
Experts believe that hasty attempts to annex the occupied territories are the result of a successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv-Izyum direction. According to them, unable to stop a possible further advance of Ukrainian troops by military means (not to mention the reconquest of territories), the Russians are trying to resolve the situation by political means. By annexing the occupied territories, Russia hopes to discourage the Ukrainians from continuing the offensive in these territories, arguing that it will defend “its territory” by all possible means, including nuclear weapons, which are part of the Russian military doctrine.
“It is very likely that all this is directed not so much at Ukraine, but at EU/NATO leaders and the public, in order to show the Western world a “potentially unnecessary escalation with unpredictable consequences”, that is, World War III and nuclear winter. This will be an attempt not only to undermine support for Ukraine, but also to interfere in its decision-making process,” say experts from the analytical center for civil defense and security Locked N’ Loaded.
Earlier reported that in the first day of “shared mobilization” in Russia, more than 1,300 protesters were detained in different cities of the country.
Source: Fakty
