The Kremlin’s heavy-handed approach to partial mobilization may successfully meet the internal quota in relation to mobilized personnel, but is unlikely to produce effective soldiers and generates significant domestic backlash for little benefit.
This opinion was expressed at the Institute for the Study of War, noting that the Kremlin forcibly recruits Russians and lies that only citizens with military experience will be accepted into the army. In particular, subpoenas are handed over to detainees at protests against mobilization. It is noted that such methods can strengthen an already unpopular measure.
Analysts recall that the Russian authorities at first announced the mobilization of 300,000 citizens, but already a day later, Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Piskov said that the practice of issuing mobilization messages to detained protesters does not contradict the September 21 mobilization law. Although earlier the authorities claimed that they would not hand over summonses to citizens who were not included in the lists of reservists.
The Institute for the Study of War, in particular, mentioned the case in Buryatia, when the National Guard and the military police took students from classes. Although earlier there were assurances that students would not be mobilized.
The Russian opposition media suggest that the authorities will not limit themselves to 300,000 “reservists” - up to a million Russians can be drafted into the army. At the same time, in a number of regions, in particular, in Yakutia and the Kursk region, reservists are prohibited from leaving their places of permanent residence.
The Kremlin is also likely to mobilize ethnically non-Russian and immigrant communities on a disproportionate scale. Kirill Kabanov, a member of the Kremlin’s Russian Council for Human Rights, has proposed compulsory military service for Central Asian immigrants who have acquired Russian citizenship in the past ten years, threatening to take it back if they are not mobilized.” - noted in ISW
As an example, one of the villages in Buryatia is mentioned, where a quarter of the male population of the settlement was mobilized. The Armenian Telegram channel published a mobilization list from Tuapse, Krasnodar Territory, which is 90% ethnic Armenian, despite the fact that the city’s total Armenian community is only 8.5% of the population.
The human rights publication OVD-Info reported that protests took place in 42 cities across the country, including even small villages in Dagestan. Unknown people set fire to several military registration and enlistment offices and local administration buildings in Nizhny Novgorod, St. Petersburg, Togliatti and the Trans-Baikal Territory.
“The Kremlin is likely to crush such protests in the coming days. However, the statement about partial mobilization and blatant disregard for even the parameters of mobilization dictated by the government may alienate the interested sections of the Russian public, which used to be more tolerant of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” analysts say.
Earlier, Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar noted that Russia initially planned to announce mobilization on September 20, but it was postponed due to the exchange of prisoners. She noted that in this way the Kremlin tried to mobilize to interrupt the topic of the exchange, during which the defenders of Azovstal, who are represented as “Nazis” in Russia, were fired. However, the information effect was not absorbed, but doubled.
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Source: Fakty
