The Central Statistical Bureau published inflation data for November. The readings confirmed the forecasts of economists who believed that inflation would begin to slow down.
Consumer inflation amounted to 17.4 percent. in annual terms in November 2022, according to a rapid data assessment, the Central Statistical Bureau (CSO) reported. Compared with the previous month, prices for consumer goods and services rose by 0.7 percent, the Main Statistical Office also reported.
“Prices for consumer goods and services, according to a rapid assessment, in November 2022 increased by 17.4 percent compared to the same month last year. (price index 117.4), and compared to the previous month increased by 0.7 percent (price index 100.7)” – read in the message.
Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages rose by 22.3 percent. y/y, energy carriers - increased by 36.8 percent. y/y fuel for personal vehicles increased by 15.5%. y/y, the report says.
On a monthly basis, food and non-alcoholic beverage prices rose 1.6 percent, energy prices fell 0.1 percent, and fuel for personal vehicles fell 1.2 percent, it was also reported.
high base
When interpreting inflation figures in the coming months, it is important to keep in mind that they will begin to be compared to increasingly higher values from late 2021 to early 2022. Inflation is given on an annualized basis, i.е. compared to the same period a year earlier.
Recall that in November 2021, to which today’s reading refers, inflation in Poland already had an upward trend and amounted to 6.8 percent. The results, which will be published by the Central Statistical Office in the coming months, although falling, will not mean that prices are falling. However, this will be a sign of a slowdown in growth.
The experts were moderate optimists
Economists have been presenting their forecasts since yesterday, which are quite bold in places.
“We believe that tomorrow inflation will fall significantly from 17.9% to 17.5% (previous consensus 17.9/18.0%). In the case of core inflation, we expect a slight increase from 11% to 11.2%. We acknowledge that this is a forecast with Lancer fantasies,” analysts at mBank Research wrote. “US: 17.9 -> 17.7 and 11.0 -> 11.4” colleagues from Pekao Bank briefly wrote to them.
It should be remembered that subsequent inflation readings will be weighed down by an additional factor. At the end of the year, the existing anti-inflationary shields will cease to operate. Yesterday, the government announced that only reduced VAT on food products will be in effect in its current form. Energy prices will be regulated on the basis of separate legal acts.
Source: Wprost
