Loan payments have not been growing for several months, and due to the growth of the average salary, loan payments are less and less burden on the budgets of households. While last summer, residents of some provinces had to spend on average almost 90% of their monthly income on loan payments. salary, now these relations are much more favorable.
When the Monetary Policy Board began ending successive meetings last fall by announcing a decision to keep interest rates at current levels, economists sapped borrowers’ enthusiasm for the end of the hike cycle. The prevailing view was that it was too early for the Council to finally stop raising rates and that we were only dealing with a pause in the raising cycle.
However, after six months without any raises, we have increasingly strong reasons to believe that, unless something unexpected happens in the market, there will be no further raises. In the coming months, decisions will be made to keep interest rates at the current level, ie. the base rate of the NBP will remain at 6.75%.
interest rates. Is there a chance for a discount this year?
Ernest Pytlarchik, chief economist at Bank Pekao, believes that there will be no more increases this year, and the first cuts are also possible at the end of the year.
– If inflation continues to fall as we expect, interest rates will become positive in real terms, and this will significantly cool the economy. I think that then the IPC will be able to make an amendment. It may turn out that other big banks will react the same way, he told Wprost.
Borrowers are interested in whether this will be a noticeable reduction or rather a symbolic step. It is too early to talk about this with a high degree of probability.
“I don’t know how far you can fall with your feet.” Inflation is still high, but it will be in single digits and tend to decrease, and this will be more important than the level itself, our source said.
Credit payments. The contribution-to-wage ratio is declining
Business Insider notes that simply stopping interest rate hikes means reducing the burden on borrowers. Although nominal contributions have not fallen for several months, they are less of a burden on household budgets due to higher wages. The site superimposes information on average monthly contributions on average wages in individual voivodships.
“In June 2022, residents of some voivodships will pay off a loan in installments for 25 years and 400,000. PLN (borrowed just before the rate hike) had to pay back almost 90 percent. average net wage. We are talking about the Lublin, Swietokrzyski and Podkarpackie voivodeships. There, this ratio exceeded 89%. - read on the site.
BI reports that the average wage in the enterprise sector in January amounted to PLN 7.2 thousand. zloty gross. In June it was about PLN 600 less.
Thus, the installment-salary ratio exceeds 80%. only in one voivodeship - Świętokrzyskie On average, loan payments account for 76.1% in Lubelskie voivodeship, 79.9% in Podkarpackie, and 79% in Warmia-Mazury. The situation in Mazovia looks much better, where the contribution to remuneration ratio is currently 59.1 percent.
Source: Wprost
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