Most likely, there will be no further increase in interest rates in Poland. This can be seen from the position of the MPC, as well as from the analyzes of many experts. When can we expect the first cuts?
The Monetary Policy Council has suspended a cycle of 11 interest rate hikes at 6.75 percent. and there are many signs that this will be his end. The base rate index did not change during the three meetings of the Council.
interest rates. No more promotion
According to the statements of the majority of the members of the Monetary Policy Council, as well as the official statement of the President of the National Bank of Poland, a further increase in the interest rate is unlikely. A similar opinion is shared by PKO BP experts. They were also tempted to indicate possible dates for the first rate cut.
“In our view, the break in the interest rate cycle will turn into its end, and in the second half we expect the first interest rate cut in 2023, if market conditions allow (the IPC itself has not yet announced a cut).” – read in the PKO BP communiqué.
“Recently, both the consensus of analysts and market expectations have shifted towards such a scenario. Of particular note are the recent declines in WIBOR3M, from a November peak of 7.61 percent. WIBOR3M fell by 56 bp, while the spread to the base rate was at the level of 30 bp. is the lowest in a year. This confirms the easing of rate hike expectations and represents a softening of effective monetary conditions. - we also read in the macroeconomic quarterly report of the bank “Currency and Tragic Conflict”.
The main factors of interest rate forecast uncertainty are: inflation trajectory; Polish zloty exchange rate volatility, (geo)political risk; Fed and ECB decisions.
Source: Wprost
