Famous British military expert, retired General Richard Barrons, who previously named three scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine, gave an interview to The Financial Times (FT), in which he gave important recommendations to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He believes that the current counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army will not be able to halve the temporarily occupied territories, but he has already shown that Russia can be defeated in this war. However, Barrons believes that it will not be possible to do this in 2023. Such success is possible, in his opinion, in 2024-2025.
“The modest progress made this summer shows that while breaking through a well-prepared defense in a war fought by conventional methods can be one of the toughest operations, it can still be done.“Barrons is sure.
“Russian forces are overstretched, depleted and have no reserves, but if they don’t just surrender, it’s still a long way to go.“, - the general pointed out the reason for the protracted nature of the war.
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Barrons emphasizes that Ukraine needs time until mid-2024 to restore the strength of the Air Force and solve the problem of a shortage of mine-clearing equipment, without which it is extremely difficult to break through the first line of Russian defense.
In the interview, Barrons names five steps that can lead to the victory of the UAF.
First, Kyiv should not rush to achieve success on the battlefield until the necessary technical means appear.
Secondly, throughout the coming winter, unrelenting pressure must be exerted on the Russian occupation forces.
Third, Ukraine must systematically seek to loosen Russia’s military grip on its territories in 2024 and beyond. “The destruction of artillery weapons is of great importance, as well as attacks on targets deeper in the rear throughout the occupied territory.“, - the British expert believes.
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Fourth, Barrons is sureit is necessary to neutralize the Russian Black Sea Fleet, which is the engine of Moscow’s devastating cruise missile strikes and a key grain export limiter.” “It is necessary to make sure that by the spring of 2024 the Black Sea Fleet no longer plays a significant role in this war.“, - the expert notes.
Finally, fifth,it must be recognized that the military-industrial potential of the West and Ukraine is the determining factor in military success in this war.” “It was possible to provide replenishment from stocks, but now the military campaign of Ukraine depends on allies who are increasing the volume of their defense industry. The flow of ammunition from the new expanded production lines will begin from mid-2024, and this should provide a significant turnaround in the offensive potential of Kyiv.concludes Richard Barrons.
Earlier, FACTS published the point of view of the British expert Luke Coffey: most of all, Ukrainians need Western patience and determination.
Source: Fakty
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