The threat of another war in Europe subsided for a while. But will the conflict not resume in a month? Is the war in the Balkans beneficial to Russia? Is it true that in Serbia the majority of the population supports the Kremlin dictator Vladimir Putin? We talked about this with Director of the Center for Civil Society Studies Vitaly Kulik.
“Last year, mercenaries were gathered all over Europe to participate in the upcoming war in the Balkans”
- The current aggravation in the Balkans was not created artificially, - says Vitaly Kulik. - This conflict started a long time ago. Back in 2012, the so-called passport war began between Serbia and Kosovo. Something similar to today’s conflict took place there in 2016-2017. Then there was a well-known incident with the “Train of Friendship”, which was supposed to pass from Belgrade to Kosovo. The carriages of this train abounded with inscriptions “Kosovo is Serbia.” The Kosovo government took such an action by the Serbs very seriously, and it decided to make every effort to prevent the “Friendship Train” from crossing the Kosovo border. The National Security Council met in Belgrade on an emergency basis, at which the then President of Serbia, Tomislav Nikolic, announced that he would personally take up arms and go to war against the Kosovars. Troops were drawn to the borders with Kosovo. In addition, the Kosovo police were put on alert. But it all ended after the order of the Prime Minister of Serbia to stop the friendship train at the Raska border station. Allegedly, there was a threat of mining the railway. This was the end of the escalation in 2016.
It was because of the Serbian license plates and documents that the aggravation in the region occurred in 2021. And two years ago, the Kosovars agreed to defer their license plate and passport demands for a month. Just like now. I would call the Serbian-Kosovo conflict a more virtual phenomenon.
- Given that Serbia is Russia’s allies, could Putin be interested in a big war in the Balkans?
- Indeed, the path dreamed of this war. I know that, starting from last year, mercenaries were gathered in separate recruiting centers in some European countries for possible military operations in the Western Balkans. But since the big Russian invasion of Ukraine began, it was not possible to fully unfreeze the conflict in the Balkans. Russia would not have been able to scatter its attention and resources on two wars because of the loss of initiative in February-March near Kyiv. And it turns out that all that Moscow can offer the Serbs within the framework of the Serbian-Russian friendship is a small handful of “Wagnerites”.
- People’s Deputy Goncharenko called on Ukraine to send Ukrainian troops to Kosovo.
– I stand for positive Russophobia. But when she loses her common sense, she becomes dangerous. It is impossible to be at enmity against all the countries that, as it seems to us, support Russia. With the same Serbia - I would not unambiguously consider it as a puppet of the Kremlin, despite the fact that President Vucic has a lot to remember. Yes, the Serbs can sometimes play along with Putin, but somewhere they can act as an independent player. They seek to milk Russia, but do not forget to ask NATO for help when it suits them. Yes, now the policy of Belgrade is not very friendly with Kyiv. In Serbia, the mercenaries who fought in the Donbas in 2014-2015 have not yet been punished. Russian recruiting centers still operate on the territory of this country, where they continue to recruit mercenaries for the war in Ukraine. But still they have cases when the activities of mercenaries were condemned and the work of these recruiting centers was prohibited. Even Russian agents from Serbia were deported. Not everything is so clear here.
However, sending Ukrainian troops into Kosovo is not the right step. First, because Ukraine did not recognize Kosovo as an independent state. Officially, we consider Kosovo to be part of Serbia. This is the correct and consistent policy of Ukraine, since there is a clear analogy between Kosovo and Crimea. Before making such statements - as MP Goncharenko did - and thereby further aggravate the already complicated relations between our country and Serbia, you still need to know the “materiel”.
Serbia for investments is 70% dependent on the European Union. As much as Serbian President Vučić has on his mind, he believes that the EU is Belgrade’s strategic perspective. And as long as such a prospect exists, there will be no war in the Balkans with the participation of Serbia.
“In the event of a big war, Western countries and NATO will stand for Kosovo”
— Kosovars have declared a moratorium on Serbian passports and license plates per month, just like in 2021. I doubt very much that by September 1 anything will change in relations between Kosovo and Serbia. What to expect in a month?
“This situation will not be resolved in the near future. This is not politically beneficial to either Belgrade or Pristina. Kosovo wants to completely resolve the Serbian issue on its territory so that the Serbian population does not ignore the local authorities. The Serbs, in turn, cannot allow this, because they believe that this will mean the loss of sovereignty over their territory.
Whose side should Ukraine take in this conflict?
We must remain neutral. We must work equally with both Kosovo and Serbia.
Are the citizens of Serbia really pro-Russian?
- According to last year’s poll, 57% of Serbs are in favor of EU membership. These 57% are potential friends of Ukraine. They are the voters of the current President Aleksandar Vučić. It is unlikely that any of them will agree to give up the prospect of EU membership for the sake of a military adventure against Kosovo. The people of Serbia are well aware that in the event of war they will have to fight not against the Kosovo police, but against the Albanian military formations with their heavy weapons. In addition, Western countries and NATO will stand behind Kosovo. But they will rock the situation with their neighbors - in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Kosovo.
- And if a great war broke out in the Balkans, could it divert attention from Ukraine?
- Definitely. This is what Putin would like. Look, just in the last couple of days, up to three dozen fake telegram channels have opened in Russia, in which the appeal was distributed: “Serbia - don’t give up! Don’t back down!” But even Serbian pro-government observers called these hastily created telegram channels “awkward work of the FSB.” Putin wanted this war in the Balkans. But now she can’t do it.
Earlier reported that NATO forces intervened in the Serbian-Kosovo conflict.
Source: Fakty
