The Russians are already attacking the channel through the Vistula Spit. Experts make it clear what Russia can do to us

The stars took part in the grand opening of the moat of the Vistula Spit. Who performed on stage in Elbląg? [ZDJĘCIA]

Russian attack on the canal through the Vistula Spit

On Monday, September 19, the press secretary of the Governor of the Kaliningrad region Dmitry Lyskov spoke. He accused Poland that the channel was created solely for political reasons and has no economic justification. He is also concerned about the ecology of the entire region.

- We are very concerned about the ecology of the Kaliningrad Bay. Environmental organizations have repeatedly noted that the consequences are unpredictable, but the Polish side continued to build the canal, a Russian official told RIA Novosti.

This is not the first attack of this type on the actions of the Polish side. Russians and Belarusians in a similar vein accused Poland of destroying the natural environment when the construction of a dam on the border with Belarus began.

The scientist divided the cost of building the Vistula Spit moat by the expected profit of the port in Elbląg. “This is not a joke, I’m serious”

Expert: Russia can do nothing to us

We asked Wojciech Michnik, an international expert at the Jagiellonian University, whether the ditch of the navigable canal through the Vistula Spit would ensure the security of Poland and whether we should be afraid of further Russian attacks.

FACT: Is the shipping channel through the Vistula Spit capable of providing Poland, and perhaps our part of Europe, with the security that the rulers talk about?

Wojciech Michnik: - It’s a delicate matter, because there is a lot of such political noise around this ditch. Of course, in the long run, if this channel functions not only as a PR propaganda, it will strengthen the internal security of the state. If such a more ambitious release of The Three Seas ever came to fruition, it would probably be a big plus.

Do you think this investment is really that successful?

- But to treat everything from the point of view of such a great security of the state, as the rulers wanted to sell, seems to me somewhat abuse.

Do you expect Russia to somehow react to Poland’s decision to build this shipping canal?

- In general, I think that in the current situation Russia does not have many such opportunities to play, so I would not think that she can do something serious. There is, and probably will be, diplomatic saber-shaking, because this is the rhetorical style of the Russian Federation, but I think it is.

The Russian media have already begun to scare people with an ecological catastrophe in the Baltic. Do you expect such rhetoric to go further?

- Of course, various propaganda techniques will be present, but they are cheap and cost almost nothing. These troll farms and propagandists are not worth much in the service of the Russian Federation. However, when it comes to some kind of large-scale military maneuvers and intimidation, I would prefer not to go down this path.

Dr. Marek Budzis: The Russians could have blackmailed us

Dr. Marek Budzis, geopolitics expert at the Stgrategy & Future think tank, author of Everything is War. Russian strategic culture”, is also convinced that the situation in Poland will change after the launch of the navigation channel through the Vistula Spit. He directly points out that the Russians have repeatedly used such tools to influence certain countries.

FACT: How do you assess the security of Poland after the opening of the shipping channel through the Vistula Spit?

Dr. Marek Budzisz: - Several issues should be considered in this context. Until now, to enter the Vistula Lagoon, it was necessary to obtain the consent of the Russians, who controlled the Pilavsky Strait. This means that we did not have full sovereignty over our own territory. Thus, in a symbolic dimension, the ditch signifies the full territorial sovereignty of Poland.

The second element is related to military matters. As you know, there is a port of the Baltic Fleet in Baltiysk, therefore, from a military point of view, the Pilyavsky Strait is controlled by the Russians, which means that we would have limited access to the Vistula Lagoon in the event of an aggravation of the situation.

And no agreements with Russia would have been more important?

- Russians, as their policy in the case of the Kerch Isthmus confirms, i.e. access to the Sea of ​​Azov, interpret the provisions of any agreements in their favor. After all, Ukraine had a formally binding access agreement, the only problem was that the Sea of ​​Azov was not demarcated according to the ownership of water areas and zones. The Russians interpreted this as meaning that they could operate freely throughout the territory, and therefore systematically prevented the Ukrainian side from accessing both civilian and, even more so, military units.

And a similar situation, although on a slightly different scale, we have too. The Russians always use such issues as leverage on the other side. And this is a kind of tool that limits the possibilities of action on the part of the Polish authorities. Hence, it can be said that it also has a gentle dimension.

Can the Russians, besides complaining about the alleged ecological catastrophe caused by the canal, have anything else to worry about Poland?

- In the current realities, this seems unlikely. In any case, ecology takes a backseat when fundamental security interests are at stake. The best example here is the activity of Germany, which is building floating natural gas liquefaction plants at an accelerated pace, as if completely oblivious to environmental issues.

And even the latest information released by the United States and US intelligence shows that the Russians throughout the European Union have used environmental tools to corrupt various types of organizations to further their interests. It also encourages a certain amount of caution in accepting environmental arguments.

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This article was first published on the Fakt website on September 21, 2022.