Analysts at the International Monetary Fund predict that only in 2027 will CPI inflation in Poland return to the target of the National Bank of Poland only at the end of 2027. They also presented forecasts for declining inflation. Let’s add a slow decline.
The CPI stands for consumer inflation and is the world’s most widely used measure of inflation and deflation. It refers to the consumer price index, which is calculated based on the weighted average price of goods and services purchased by the average household. Like producer inflation, consumer price indices are calculated and published by the Central Statistical Office.
CPI has been above the NBP target for 4 years
An increase in the CPI means that the prices of goods that are included in the calculation of inflation have increased, so you can buy less for a given amount.
Consumer inflation exceeds 2.5 percent. The target of the NBP - that is, the level that the central bank evaluates - from mid-2019. Is there a chance to get closer to the target? In March, inflation began to decline after months of growth, but it will not approach the level of 2-3 percent for many more months.
The head of the National Bank of Poland, Adam Glapinski, expects CPI inflation to slow to 6% by the end of this year. NBP analysts are somewhat more restrained - the March forecast shows that it will be about 8 percent. The International Monetary Fund, in turn, presented forecasts up to 2028.
Such forecasts are discussed on the Bankier website. The IMF forecast shows that CPI inflation in Poland will be 2.5 percent. at the end of 2027. This means that prices will rise at a rate that exceeds the NBP target for more than 8 years (from June 2019). This year, the average annual inflation should be about 12 percent, in 2024 - to exceed 6 percent, in 2025 - 4 percent.
Only in 2026 should it be within the tolerance of the NBP target and be 3.5 percent. In a year, it should slow down to less than 3 percent, and only in the last year of the forecast should fall to 2.5 percent.
Source: Wprost
I am George Brown, author at Daily News Hack. I mostly cover economy news and I have been doing this for quite some time now. I have a lot of experience in this field and I’m always looking for new opportunities to learn more.
