“Time will be of the essence”: experts on the success of the Ukrainian counter-offensive

Weather the storm, debilitate the enemy, then strike back. This is the mantra of the Ukrainian military for many months, which has been repeated by US and NATO officials since the winter. Here’s an idea for you. But can it be implemented, and if so, where, when and with what? Major General Kirill Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry, said in an interview in March 2023 that Russia and Ukraine will face off in “a decisive battle this spring, and this battle will be the last before the end of this war,” writes CNN. .Politics.

Important prerequisites for the Ukrainian counteroffensive are the completion of training and the integration of new units, the degradation of the Russian rear, a stable supply chain and real-time intelligence.

“The intelligence picture will provide information on where there may be weak spots in the Russian defense, as well as the location of the Russian headquarters, logistics and reserve forces. - said Mick Ryan, former Australian Army General, recently located in Ukraine. - Several new corps are being created in Ukraine, each of which will have several thousand servicemen. They will include not only new Western tanks, infantry fighting vehicles, wheeled vehicles and other equipment, but also a lot of engineering equipment.”

These divisions are almost ready. As reported Ekaterina Stepanenko from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington, Ukrainians “are forming or have already formed six to nine new brigades for counter-offensives”.

Mick Ryan noted that such ambitious offensive operations consume large amounts of fuel, ammunition, food, medical supplies and spare equipment. Therefore, the supply chain is critical.

General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the United States stated: “Ukrainians move objects on these maps to determine what their best course of action would be, and they determine the advantages and disadvantages of the associated risks.”

One clue - though it may be well camouflaged - experts say will be operations to strike at logistics centers, rear bases and ammunition depots deep along the Russian front lines, both with Western long-range weapons such as HIMARS, and with the help of sabotage groups. There has already been an increase in the number of such attacks in the south of Zaporozhye and Crimea.

A successful blow to the south would have rendered the Russian defense of the part of Kherson region untenable, which it still holds. It could also pave the way for the resumption of Ukrainian control over the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and a canal that supplies fresh water to Crimea. But Stepanenko agrees it would be a mistake to focus on just one area. Offensives in the east and south could be mutually supportive, which would create additional logistical and deployment problems for the Russians.

Russia, the newspaper writes, of course, is well aware that Ukraine is planning new offensive actions. She has used the last few months to build several layers of defenses, especially in the south.

Mick Ryan says that in addition to this, the Russians probably have mobile forces to counterattack. Intelligence gathering and long-range strikes to incapacitate such units is an important element of Ukrainian planning.

For the Ukrainian counteroffensive to be successful, many stars must align.

“The Ukrainians will not only want to surprise the Russians with the timing and location of their main and secondary strikes, but also to create an operational pace that will surpass Russia’s ability to respond quickly and at the right time with the right forces. Ryan said. - Success in the early stages will create momentum. Ukrainians only need to make one penetration into the Russian tactical defensive line in order to then break through the flow of occupying forces, which, in turn, can force Russia to conduct large-scale regroupings and withdraw its troops..

Earlier, military expert Oleg Zhdanov predicted the “Kherson” scenario for the Russians in the event of an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine.