If Russia launches a large-scale offensive in the winter-spring, which in some circles is even referred to as a large offensive, it is likely to be very different in nature from which terrorist country launched on February 24, 2022, Lieutenant Colonel Jarmo Mattila said in an interview , Senior Lecturer at the Institute of Military Sciences, National Defense University of Finland.
“The Donbass region is important to Russia, and Donetsk is still not completely under their control. Thus, the direction of Donetsk and Zaporozhye may be the most likely direction of attack, possibly Kharkiv, Jarmo Mattila notes.
However, he does not believe that we will see a real large-scale offensive. For Russia itself, this is simply meaningless. The aggressor is more likely to achieve his goals if he establishes a more limited territorial focus.
“I think the Russians have also learned this lesson. Of course they knew in the past to create a center of gravity. However, why were these basic lessons not followed. The direction of Belarus is also interesting as part of the overall picture. Lukashenka, the country’s leader, said the other day that his country is “already ready” to offer Russia assistance. Thus, the focus on eastern Ukraine does not preclude strikes from the north. Belarus could launch such an offensive to tie up Ukrainian troops there. I don’t think that there will be any serious offensive in this direction, but from there it will be possible to complicate the defense struggle of Ukraine,” Mattila says.
Much has been said about Russian missiles. According to the most optimistic estimates, missiles will run out in Russia pretty soon. However, Jarmo Mattila refutes such hopes. Examples he cites include short-range and dual-purpose ballistic missiles such as the S-300.
“This is primarily an anti-aircraft missile, but it is also used to hit targets on land quite close, at a distance of about 100 kilometers. Russia still has a lot of such missiles, so they will not run out yet. In addition, Russia will have to limit the use of more advanced, longer-range missiles that can be fired hundreds or even thousands of kilometers away. Of course, they are no longer enough. In addition, there were signs that they would be able to continue their creation. However, the amount of production they are capable of on a monthly basis is significantly less than in the past.”
Mobilization allowed Russia to compensate for significant losses of troops. According to Mattila, there are signs of a possible new coming.
“Russia is building up offensive forces and reserves with which it can try to carry out a larger offensive. The equipment has also been moved, so something is happening. The timing of a possible offensive is difficult to estimate, but the end of February and the beginning of March are dates mentioned in different contexts. This could be a window of opportunity for something to happen. But this attack would not come as a surprise to Ukraine. So far, a complete collapse has not occurred, although Russia has been advancing for almost a year. The situation has been more static for some time now.”
Both sides, the expert believes, are definitely looking for new configurations, training their troops and building up resources. Ukraine still has a good capacity to respond to Russian attacks, and it will be further strengthened with military assistance from the West.
Therefore, in the opinion of the lieutenant colonel, it is not worth talking about a big offensive in the true sense of the term. In practice, this will require the broad involvement of all branches of the armed forces and all types of weapons. A large-scale offensive also implies a significant change in the volume and pace of hostilities compared to the current situation, and the goals will be of an operational-strategic nature. Mattila believes that entire Russians are now more moderate than before. Given the importance of the Donbass to Russia, this region may be a more limited and realistic target for them.
The fact that Russia is preparing for an “irreversible offensive” in the coming months was also previously stated by ISW analysts.
See also: Putin is betting on “political fatigue”: CIA director Burns predicted developments in the next six months
Source: Fakty
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