Decrease in external pressure and fears of too strong economic slowdown prevail. Economists say there will be no further interest rate hike.
The current base rate of the NBP is at 6.75 percent. is this the highest level we will see? For two months, the Monetary Policy Council did not make a decision to raise the rate. The next decision-making meeting will take place on Wednesday, December 7, but economists also agree with its results.
End of interest rate hike
The cycle of tightening interest rates has probably come to an end. A growing number of economists argue that, despite inflation approaching 20 percent, the IPC will not dare to tighten monetary policy. The forecasts are based on two main factors.
First, economists point to an improvement in the external situation, which greatly spurred inflation in Poland. First of all, we are talking about the prices of crude oil, natural gas and electricity in the pan-European market.
In recent weeks, all these problems have definitely eased, so the pressure on the Polish economy has eased. Crude oil returned to pre-war price levels, and natural gas became much cheaper as warehouses in Western Europe filled up. The European Union and member states are also trying to solve the problem of expensive electricity.
The second factor is the fear of a recession. Members of the IGC should take into account the data coming from the market, which show a clear slowdown in GDP growth and a worsening situation in the labor market. Therefore, a further increase would be extremely risky.
President Adam Glapinski speaks of a pause
Although the president of the National Bank of Poland recently said that the MPC has not interrupted the interest rate hike cycle, but only suspended it, economists believe that the decision of the board on Wednesday is the easiest to predict this year.
Source: Wprost
