Rating agency S&P Global Rating lowered its forecast for Poland’s economic growth. According to analysts, next year the Polish GDP will grow by 0.9 percent.
Analysts at S&P Global Ratings revised their economic growth forecast for Poland. They predict that instead of the previously estimated growth of 1.2 percent, we will have 0.9 percent.
According to the latest forecast, there will be a slight rebound in 2024, with GDP growth of 3.2 percent and 2.8 percent in 2025. Analysts do not expect further interest rate increases. However, they predict that in 2024 the base rate will fall by 150 basis points, and in 2025 the MAC will reduce it to 3.5%.
Forecasts may change
“The risks to our forecasts are significant. In the negative scenario, which assumes a complete cessation of Russian gas supplies to Europe and higher global interest rates, the Polish economy could experience an annual decline in 2023. S&P analysts warn.
“Currently, under both the base and negative scenarios, we expect disbursements from KPO in 2023, although we point to the risk of delays in this matter or reduction in allocated funding, which will weaken investments. In addition, market pressure on the currency or debt market could intensify if inflation is higher, which could lead to higher interest rates, which could hit the economy and employment harder.
The economy is slowing down
Gross domestic product in the third quarter of 2022 increased by 3.6 percent. compared to an increase of 5.8 percent. y/y in the second quarter of 2022, according to the GUS communiqué. Earlier, the Central Statistical Bureau in a quick assessment reported that GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.5 percent. y/y
Investments in the 3rd quarter increased by 2.0 percent. year on year, private consumption increased by 0.9 percent, while domestic demand increased by 3.1 percent. y/y This was reported today by the Central Statistical Office (CSO). The market expected investment growth at the level of 4.5%. y/y, private consumption by 2.4 percent. y/y and domestic demand by 3.1 percent. y/y
Source: Wprost
