On Friday, the CSB will publish preliminary inflation data for July. According to economists, the summit is over. But that doesn’t mean prices are going down.
On Friday, the Central Statistical Bureau will publish a preliminary inflation estimate for July. According to experts, inflation will decrease in July. Although it will still be high.
“This year’s summit will be even,” Pekao analysts wrote on Twitter. In their opinion, a slight decrease will be associated with a slow decline in fuel prices. Rise in food prices should remain at the level of June. In turn, more expensive coal could increase headline inflation, which, according to Pekao experts, will be 15.3%.
“We promised you a (local) inflation peak in June and we keep our word. We believe that the July value will be within 15.1%. -15.4%, but we like the 15.3% figure the most. The base is growing from 9.1 percent. up to 9.2 percent.” — mBank economists predict.
Various predictions
The most optimistic in their forecasts are analysts from Santander Bank, who predict that inflation will fall to 15.2% in July, mainly due to falling fuel prices.
Analysts at Credit Agricole believe that inflation rose to 15.6 percent in July. Experts from Bank Ochrony Środowiska share a similar opinion, predicting that July inflation will stabilize at the level of June, i.e. 1.5-16%.
Peak ahead
Speaking of lowering inflation, experts warn that only this year’s summit is behind us. We should be concerned about what’s in store for us next year.
According to the NBP forecast, in the most realistic scenario, inflation will be 18.8% at the beginning of next year. The NBP, however, gives a spread, analysts stipulate that the price increase could be in the range of 12 to even 26 percent.
“Pricing processes are still under the influence of a strong negative supply shock, exacerbated by the consequences of Russia’s armed aggression against Ukraine. This translates into high world market prices for energy and agricultural commodities, rising CO2 allowance prices and prolonged tensions in global supply chains. The current high rate of inflation is also influenced, albeit to a lesser extent, by demand factors. They are associated with a strong recovery in economic activity after the COVID-19 pandemic,” the NBP said in a July report.
Source: Wprost
