Prigozhin does not fulfill the agreement with Lukashenka, - ISW

The self-proclaimed head of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, said that Wagner group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin and Wagner forces were not in Belarus as of July 6, indicating that the latter may not be honoring the agreement that Lukashenko made between Krasivy and Putin. after the Wagner armed mutiny on 24 June. Lukashenko and the Kremlin had previously announced that Prigozhin, Putin and Lukashenko had reached an agreement offering Prigozhin and the Wagner forces involved in the uprising vague security guarantees in Belarus. The full content of this agreement has not been disclosed, but Wagner does not appear to be keeping its end of the deal. This is stated in the report of the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) for July 6.

Alexander Lukashenko said on July 6 that the Wagner forces were in their permanent camps (either in Russia or Ukraine), where they retreated after the battle for Bakhmut. On July 6, Lukashenka added that Prigozhin was in St. Petersburg, or maybe even flew to Moscow on the morning of July 6. Lukashenko denied reports that Belarus was building new training camps for Wagner forces and noted that Belarus had offered several former Soviet military camps to mercenaries, including near Osipovichi in the Mogilev region. The self-proclaimed head of Belarus hinted that Wagner had not yet agreed to be stationed at these bases, and that he had “another vision of their placement”, the details of which Lukashenka refused to share. The latter, however, objected that the agreement was broken, and noted that the question of the redeployment and deployment of mercenary forcescurrently unresolved“.

Russian sources also said Prigozhin is in Russia, although ISW is unable to confirm his whereabouts at this time. The Russian opposition publication writes that Prigozhin’s plane landed in the Rostov region after taking off from the Moscow region on the morning of July 6.

The day before, the St. Petersburg publication stated that Prigozhin personally took several small arms seized by the federal security service from the FSB building in St. Petersburg on July 4. The publication also reported that Prigogine was in Moscow during the weekend of July 1 and 2.

ISW did not find any visual evidence in open sources that Wagner employees were in Belarus at that time. Kremlin speaker Dmitry Peskov also said that the Kremlin cannot and does not want to keep an eye on the beautiful. Sandy’s claim, analysts say, is absurd, given that the Kremlin and Russian security forces have the ability to detain Prigogine or restrict his movement in Russia. It looks especially absurd if Prigogine was really able to take his weapon from the FSB.

Lukashenka appears to be distancing himself from the agreement in which he was reportedly mediating, continuing to brag about his ability to mediate between Putin and his former “officer” loyal to him, thereby highlighting the weakness of the dictator’s killer. Lukashenka defiantly stated that the Wagner mercenaries and Prigozhin were Russians, and the question of their whereabouts should not be asked to him. And his rhetoric may indicate that he holds the Kremlin responsible for implementing the agreement. Lukashenko also went on to boast about his skillful negotiations with Prigogine after he said in response to a reporter’s questions that Putin’s power had not been weakened during the armed uprising.

Earlier published Igor Eidman’s reflections on three options for Prigozhin’s actions: a campaign against Kyiv, a campaign against Moscow, or a seizure of power in Belarus.