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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Forecasts and prospects 2024

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After a year of crazy price increases, a year of repentance has come. The rise in prices for housing, food and fuel will slow down, but there is no reason to delude yourself that it will suddenly become cheaper.

Real estate

Apartments in Poland’s largest cities are among the most expensive in the entire EU. The growth rate of property prices in Poland is the highest in the entire Community – according to the latest Eurostat data. Comparing the data quarter by quarter, prices for houses and apartments in the European Union are growing by an average of 0.8%.

However, in Poland growth is a record 4.5%. – the most among all member states. This murderous pace is primarily due to the “Safe Loan 2%” – a government housing program launched in July 2023, which consisted of subsidies for people applying for a mortgage loan. However, the most serious side effect was the increase in demand for apartments and, as a result, their prices. Will real estate prices rise that much in 2024?

The 2 percent loan has ended, so analysts say a cooling in the mortgage market can be expected at least early this year. Customer enthusiasm will also be undermined by high interest rates and record prices. All this may cause many potential buyers of the new M to postpone their purchase decision. But does this mean that real estate, after many years of growth, will suddenly begin to fall in price? This is a dubious scenario. Growth will continue, although not as severe as in 2023.

The rise in prices will also be due to the low supply of new apartments and the fact that investment in real estate has been considered the best investment in Poland for many years. However, the growth could become even more pronounced in the second half of this year. That’s when the new government housing program will come into force. Super cheap loans with interest rates from 0 to 1.5 percent. could cause real estate prices to soar again. How high it will be will depend on the final form of the new program, which is currently open to discussion.

Fuel

At the end of last year, drivers had no reason to worry. Analysts at the industry website e-petrol.pl reported that fuel prices at most gas stations have decreased by an average of two to five cents per liter, depending on the type of fuel. The price decline continued in the first days of the new year, and the downward trend continues. In November 2023, the average price of gasoline was more than 6.5 zlotys per liter, diesel fuel was more than 6.7 zlotys, and automobile gas was almost 3.1 zlotys.

Today it is 6.23 for Pb95, 6.43 for diesel and 2.89 for LPG respectively. The reductions even reach several tens of pennies per liter. But Eldorado may soon end. Experts from BM Reflex and e-petrol.pl note a change in the fuel surcharge rate, which at the beginning of the year increased by the inflation rate of the first three quarters of 2023, that is, by approximately 13%. This should result in a price increase of 2 to 5 cents per liter, depending on the type of fuel. For now, it’s reassuring that the stations compete fiercely with each other, which means there is no increase in prices at the pumps. But the competition won’t last forever. Prices may also be affected by the situation in the Middle East, which has calmed down a little for now.

Food

Prices are expected to rise, but not at such a crazy pace as in 2023, when food prices rose by more than 15%. Some analysts say growth will be around 6%. The National Bank of Poland is even more cautious, predicting price growth of about 3%. So there will be no tragedy. Dairy products will definitely become more expensive. Mainly due to low purchasing prices for milk. Therefore, farmers began to limit its production, but in order not to stop it completely, dairy cooperatives will have to raise prices. This, in turn, means rising prices on store shelves. Not only milk and cheese will become more expensive, but also butter, the stocks of which are being reduced both in warehouses in Poland and the EU.

Although prices for wheat and flour are falling on world markets, since the specter of Russian attacks on container ships carrying Ukrainian grain has not been forgotten, bread is not getting cheaper. Mainly because flour makes up only part of the final price of a kilogram of bread. There are many other rising costs, such as employee wages, energy prices, transportation and packaging. However, at large bakeries that supply semi-frozen food to supermarkets, wage pressure is not as strong. Prices for such bread will increase minimally. Much greater growth can be expected in small local bakeries, where bread is still baked by bakers rather than machines.

The situation in the meat industry is better for consumers. After a year of rising pork prices, the first months of 2024 show a downward trend. Poultry and beef, which Poles still eat very little of, are also becoming cheaper. We should also pay less for oil. This is largely due to the excellent rapeseed harvest last year. The situation is worse with olive oil, which will be more expensive this year. This is due to the drought, which has caused losses among farmers in the Mediterranean basin. As a consolation and sweetener, we can add that sugar should become cheaper this year. We still have a large oversupply in the domestic market. It will most likely not be possible to export it in full, so it will have to be sold at a lower price on the domestic market.

Energy

Although the Energy Regulatory Authority’s president has cut electricity sales rates for major operators such as PGE, Enea, Tauron and Energa by nearly a third, electricity prices will not budge this year. At least until the first six months of 2024, because that’s when the current government extended the energy price freeze that has kept electricity bills in check since 2022. Thus, Poles will pay the same amount for electricity as they did a year ago. Same with gas. There is also a price freeze that will last until the end of June 2024. As a result, distribution fees will increase. Not that much, only 5%. What about electricity and gas prices in the second half of the year?

Everything is in the hands of the government, which is due to present an action plan for further consumer protection measures at the end of the first quarter of 2024. The situation is worse with firewood or pellets. Here prices will skyrocket even more. This is due to the decision to reduce the deforestation of Polish forests by 30%, which was made at the beginning of the year by the Ministry of Climate and Environment. The reason is the protection of forests and forests. Reduced logging means limited supply, which means higher prices not only for pellets or firewood, but also for raw materials for manufacturers of windows, furniture and building materials. For now, the slowdown in logging is expected to last for six months until broader solutions are developed in consultation with foresters, scientists and local communities, Minister Paulina Hennig-Kloska said.

Fees and taxes

In 2024, not only the fuel surcharge has increased, which will sooner or later affect fuel prices at stations. Poles’ wallets will also be hit by increases in many fees. Municipalities across Poland are massively increasing waste collection rates. On average a few zlotys per person. Property taxes will also increase due to local levies. An average of 15 percent nationwide. The resort tax, which tourists pay extra for vacations at popular resorts, will increase. The amount of dog tax will increase from PLN 151 in 2023 to over PLN 173 in 2024.

Fines will also be increased. For example, for not having a valid liability insurance policy. Until now, a driver without compulsory insurance has paid 7,000 zlotys. zloty From this year he will pay 8.5 thousand zlotys. zloty The procedure for calculating fines for late payment of compulsory motor liability insurance will also change. For a period of 1 to 3 days the fine will be 20%. full cost, i.e. about 1.7 thousand zloty zloty. If the period of no insurance is extended from 4 to 14 days, the fine will increase to half the full cost, i.e. over 4.2 thousand zlotys. zloty However, if we drive without liability insurance for more than two weeks, we will pay the maximum, i.e. 8.5 thousand zlotys. zloty

Another increase may provide some consolation from this year’s changes. 500+ became 800+. Although they still have 300 zlotys in their wallet, they can immediately eat up the increase in fees for private nurseries and kindergartens.

Entrepreneurs

This year started with a cold shower for them. In 2024, the minimum wage increased from 3.6 thousand zlotys. PLN gross up to just over 4.2 thousand zloty. Along with the increase in the minimum wage came a number of other increases depending on its size. Among other things, the health insurance premium has increased and cannot be lower than 9%. minimum wage, i.e. this year it will be at least 381.78 zlotys.

ZUS contributions have also increased. On average, 200 zlotys per month, which will be felt most by those who are self-employed. The increase will also affect novice entrepreneurs who will be able to take advantage of the so-called small ZUS. Here the increase will be approximately 100 zlotys per month. The increase will also place a burden on employers. The hourly rate for people working under a mandate contract will increase to 27.7 zlotys. And from July they will have another increase, since they will have to pay at least 28.10 zlotys per hour of work.

Games and bets

Last year, Totalizator Sportowy’s revenues exceeded PLN 52 billion. And this year is expected to be as successful as the previous one. It will be marked by further dynamic development of the interactive channel. This is not only a platform for selling number games and cash lotteries on the lotto.pl website, but also the only legal online casino in Poland, Total Casino. In total, there are approximately 2 million registered players on both platforms, and forecasts indicate further dynamic growth.

For Totalizator Sportowy, the priority action is the simultaneous development of stationary and online channels as part of building an omnichannel sales model. In terms of products, Totalizator notes a growing demand for fast games: both among European and Polish players. Hence the huge success of the new 2023 Sweepstakes product – Losi Express. Another important trend in the industry is the gamification of entertainment. Until now it has been used, for example, in the Lotto Challenge, and now it is also used in internal company processes, such as the onboarding of new employees.

The challenge for the company is definitely the fight against illegal operators and the gray area. Over the past five years, its share of the gaming market has fallen from 43 to 23 percent. This year, Totalizator will continue to expand its network of showrooms, invest in new technologies and young Polish businesses, and make bolder use of artificial intelligence, thereby increasing the safety of players online and preparing even more personalized entertainment for them.

Source: Directly
  • Economy
  • Companies and markets
  • Finance and Investments

Source: Wprost

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