The British Royal Defense Research Institute (RUSI) published a report on the role of Russian intelligence services in the preparation and implementation of Russian aggression against Ukraine. Its authors are British experts Dr. Jack Watling and Nick Reynolds, as well as corresponding member of RUSI Oleksandr Danilyuk (former adviser to the Minister of Defense and head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine), Guildhall reports.
The report recalls Russia’s demand that the government of Ukraine refuse to join NATO in order to provoke mass protests (similar to the Revolution of Dignity caused by Yanukovych’s refusal to join the EU) and internal social destabilization, disorganization of the military and political authorities, which greatly simplified the Russian military invasion , limit Ukraine’s ability to resist and reduce the level of its international support. For this purpose, the Russian special services used their own numerous agents in the highest echelons of state power, political parties and public organizations of Ukraine, which were coordinated by the 5th FSB service and the Main Directorate of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces (GRU), in particular, with the help of the main representatives of the Yanukovych regime: Andrey Klyuev , Vladimir Sivkovich, Andriy Derkach, Viktor Medvedchuk and others.
“It is believed that the task of the organization was to create a provocation during mass coups, as well as to radicalize the socio-political situation in Ukraine, in particular, to provoke a violent confrontation with representatives of pro-Ukrainian organizations. After the Russian invasion in 2022, members of the organization went underground and performed various tasks of the Russian intelligence services in support of the Russian invasion. A similar model, which the Russians also used before the 2014 aggression, when the Oplot organization, which also included athletes, criminals and law enforcement officers, was first used for violence against opponents of the Yanukovych regime and later became the basis for the formation of Russian authorized forces in Donetsk. Like Derkach, Medvedchuk’s group also controlled security firms and detective agencies. Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Viktor Chorny was responsible for the activities of this group”, the report says.
The authors write that the Russians failed to provoke an internal crisis in Ukraine for two reasons. First, Western intelligence agencies, along with information about the preparation of the Russian invasion, also provided data on the plans and direct perpetrators of such destabilization. Secondly, the government of Ukraine did not make concessions that would be unacceptable to society and would lead to mass protests.
“Failing to achieve the necessary prerequisites, the Russian intelligence services advised the Russian leadership to postpone the military invasion until the summer of 2022, but the paths did not heed these advice, which to a large extent led to the failure of the Russian blitz ice,” the RUSI report says.
The authors note that, despite the failure of the original plan and the loss of part of the intelligence networks in Ukraine, Russia continues to assign an important role to the special operations of its own intelligence agencies, which are still capable of effective action.
As one example of Russia continuing to use its traditional forms of covert aggression, the report cites the current situation in Moldova, which was quite accurately predicted by the authors of the report back in the spring of 2022. It emphasizes the leading role of the Russian special services in the planning and implementation of Russia’s aggressive policy. Experts recommend strengthening counteraction to them, which is a necessary element of the national and international security and defense system.
The text of the report in English can be found on the official website of the British Royal Joint Institute for Defense and Security Studies.
Source: Fakty
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