The four-month battle for Avdiivka is likely nearing its climax as the Ukrainian garrison in the devastated city runs out of ammunition – a direct result of pro-Russian Republicans in the US Congress refusing to provide aid – and Russian infantry infiltrates the city from the north and south, threatening
This may be a painful loss for Ukraine, but at the same time, the Kremlin sacrificed almost an entire mechanized division of tanks.
As open source analyst @partisan_oleg notes, before the collapse of the Soviet Union, a motorized rifle division of 10,000 people on paper had 220 tanks. The Russian army still largely adheres to the Soviet concept of military force structure. According to analyst @naalsio26, since the offensive on Avdeevka in early October, the Russian 2nd and 41st combined arms armies have lost 214 tanks. These are mainly T-72 and T-80, as well as a few high-end T-90s. Ukrainian brigades in and around Avdeevka lost only 18 tanks.
The losses of Russian tanks near Avdiivka represent potentially more than a tenth of all tanks of Russian troops in Ukraine.
The Russians cannot blame the 12-to-1 casualty ratio on the fact that the Ukrainians did not use tanks in their defense campaign in Avdiivka: the Ukrainians used tanks, including some of the best German-made Leopard 2A6 tanks – before transferring them to the brigade, which holds the defense line around Kreminnaya.
The Russians also cannot point out the traditional advantage of a dug-in defender over a striker. Historically, an attacker should expect to lose three times as much as a defender.
“The Ukrainians simply defeated the Russians with mines, artillery, drones, missiles and old-fashioned rifle fire from fortified positions. And they did so even as ammunition gradually ran out after Republicans withheld U.S. aid to Ukraine starting in October. Having lost four times as many tanks as expected, the Russians fell into a trap of attrition. They may capture what’s left of Avdiivka, but if the Ukrainian garrison retreats now, the Russians will be left with ruins at the cost of lives and equipment that they probably won’t be able to rebuild quickly and most likely not without slowing down the pace of operations elsewhere. front of Russia’s 23-month war against Ukraine“, writes the publication.
If, on the orders of the Ukrainian Eastern Command or the new commander-in-chief, General Alexander Syrsky, the garrison fights to the last man, it risks giving up its advantage in numbers.
“This has happened before. The Russians last cordoned off the large Ukrainian population center of Bakhmut in May last year, and Syrsky, then head of the Ukrainian ground forces, may have kept the Bakhmut garrison in the ruins of the eastern city for too long. Although Bakhmut initially unfolded as a Ukrainian success story, and the Russians suffered significant losses, sometimes reaching a ratio of 1:7 or 1:10, the situation quickly changed.”– explains the Ukrainian analytical group Frontelligence Insight.
Earlier it was reported that the occupiers intensified their “meat assaults” on Avdiivka.
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