34 percent of companies expect their financial position to worsen at the end of the year. Alarming Data

The deteriorating economic situation of consumers, the growing costs of doing business, including primarily energy costs, are forcing entrepreneurs to look for ways to save money, optimize supply chains and introduce tools to help maintain financial liquidity. However, all these actions may not be enough in the face of runaway inflation, energy crisis and falling sales.

Every fourth entrepreneur is afraid that he will have to close his business

Almost one in four (22.6%) SMEs surveyed saw a real risk of liquidation of their business this year, while in the same period of 2020, despite the ongoing pandemic, twice as many companies saw such a prospect (10.6% ). from BIG InfoMonitor’s “SME Scanner” round-robin survey for the fourth quarter of 2022.

Entrepreneurs see the reasons for this state of affairs primarily in high inflation (52.2%) and rapidly growing costs of doing business (43.4%). In addition, there were reasons not yet announced, such as the need to return advance payments for goods and services sold. Every fifth businessman reported about the related threat. On the other hand, 45.5 per cent. of respondents from the construction industry cited a sharp decline in orders as a result of the termination of contracts as a reason for fear of bankruptcy.

Among entrepreneurs who most often feared the prospect of business liquidation, micro and small enterprises with no more than 49 employees, as well as those working in the service sector (28.3%) and transport (26.7%), prevailed.

— Large companies are more resilient to economic change and cope better with inflation or rising energy prices than micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Sensitive to economic fluctuations, operating more locally, SMEs are increasingly affected by rising prices for raw materials or energy. For many of them, doing business in the current economic realities may not be feasible - comments Slavomir Gzhelchak, president of BIG InfoMonitor.

Forecasts are not optimistic. Every third respondent (34%) expects the financial position of the company to worsen at the end of the year, regardless of the size of employment or industry. This is a minor change from the previous edition of the survey - in the third quarter, 27.2% of respondents expected their condition to worsen. Only 11.2% hope for improvement. respondents (no changes compared to the previous edition).

The risk of delayed payments is becoming more and more real

Entrepreneurs surveyed in the SME Scanner survey also see red flags regarding the financial health of their contractors. Almost 36 percent of micro, small and medium-sized enterprises have concerns about the solvency of contractors in the fourth quarter of 2022. Entrepreneurs know that if their main contractors stop paying them, they too will suffer. Many contractors who delay payments can lead to financial problems for even the healthiest company. The loss of financial liquidity by one large industry entity directly impacts other business partners who are unable to meet their own obligations, meaning that payment delays propagate further down the supply chain, creating payment delays.

– The specter of arrears in payments is becoming quite real and is now one of the key risks. You must remember that the blocks work like dominoes, when they move, they knock over other dominoes. This is a very dangerous situation, especially for small companies and not very diversified companies dependent on one or more recipients. - says prof. Waldemar Rogowski, Chief Analyst at BIG InfoMonitor (BIK Group).

Record growth of ZUS and inflation. Small businesses fail one by one

The self-employed do not wait for the development of the situation. There were no such rates of business closure even during the pandemic: since the beginning of the year, more than 140,000 individual entrepreneurs have been liquidated in Poland - 15,000 in Warsaw alone.

There are several reasons for such decisions. First, it is the growth of tax costs. ZUS for small companies is definitely overpriced. This is a factor that, after the right calculation, makes many freelancers or sole proprietors decide: it is more profitable for me to work full-time. Let me put it simply: ZUS is pushing small entrepreneurs out to full-time jobs, says Hanna Moysiuk, president of the Northern Chamber of Commerce in Szczecin.

And adds: - The growth of ZUS for individual companies in 2023 will be a record, according to calculations, it will be more than 17 percent. Recall that the insurance premium for health insurance depends on the average wage, and next year it will grow by leaps and bounds, as well as the minimum wage, says Anna Moysyuk.

In 2023, the ZUS contribution for entrepreneurs will increase by approximately PLN 200 and reach approximately PLN 1,400. zloty. In addition, entrepreneurs must pay health insurance premiums. Thus, they will transfer more than PLN 1.7 thousand to the ZUS account every month. złoty, regardless of whether they had any income. This is the highest increase in premiums in history.

SME Ombudsman proposes voluntary ZUS

Ombudsman for small and medium-sized businesses Adam Abramovich presented his proposal to fix the problem. In his speech at the opening of the 12th European Congress, he recalled that the SME sector, in dialogue with the government, had already achieved the introduction of a maximum electricity price of PLN 785 per MWh, applied retroactively from 24 February this year. and is waiting for the announcement - also for this sector - of the maximum price for gaseous fuels.

“We also hope that the government will take our demands into account when it comes to simplifications. An economic recession is coming and it is imperative to make changes to the legislation that will allow companies to survive a difficult period. One of the most important postulates of the Ombudsman for SMEs and Entrepreneurs, united in the Ombudsman’s Council, is the voluntariness of ZUS for entrepreneurs, Abramovich recalled.